“The semiconductor shortage is unlikely to disappear in the next few years,” begins Automotive World. “Heavy CapEx investments will be needed to boost the manufacturing capacities and restore supply” as the global semiconductor supply-demand gap still stands at 9%. “It will be a long and difficult road to recover the supply-demand gap, especially for the automotive industry.”
According to the report, the automotive industry is expected to have the highest growth (11% CAGR) of all semiconductor segments through to 2026. For comparison, consumer electronics is projected to grow by 4%, while smartphones will see only 2%. At this rate, the auto semiconductor market will grow to US$84bn, representing 11% of the total semiconductor market (US$767bn) by 2026. To fulfil this demand, manufacturing capacities need to increase, which may take years.
According to SEMI projections, the largest installed capacity increases in 2023 are going to happen for technology nodes below 16nm, which are not currently used in automotive industry. The relevant technology nodes, such as the 40nm node widely used in automotive MCUs as well as general purpose non-automotive MCUs, are only projected to increase by 4% in capacity next year. For comparison, a 25% capacity increase is forecast for advanced (5-7nm) nodes used in smartphones.
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