The Netherlands recently imposed new export restrictions on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment. However, TrendForce, a market research firm, believes that China’s semiconductor industry will still be able to grow in the coming years.
TrendForce predicts that China’s market share in 12-inch wafer production capacity will increase from 24% in 2022 to 26% in 2026. If the export of 40/28nm equipment is eventually approved, the market share could reach 28% by 2026.
The new export restrictions will affect several manufacturing processes, including photolithography, deposition, and epitaxy. However, TrendForce says that Chinese foundries have been primarily developing mature processes like 55nm, 40nm, and 28nm. This means that they will not be as reliant on imported equipment for these processes.
The main limiting factor for Chinese foundries will be the equipment used in photolithography. This is because photolithography is a more advanced process and requires more sophisticated equipment.
TrendForce says that the businesses that will be most affected by the export restrictions include SMIC’s Beijing and Shanghai fabs, as well as Nexchip’s A3/A4 fabs in Hefei. However, Nexchip’s Hefei fabs may experience less disruption, as their short-term production focus remains on more mature processes.
Overall, TrendForce believes that the new export restrictions will have a limited impact on China’s semiconductor industry. The industry is still poised for growth in the coming years, as Chinese foundries continue to develop mature processes and reduce their reliance on imported equipment.
In summary:
- The export restrictions are part of a broader effort by the United States and its allies to slow down China’s technological progress.
- The restrictions are likely to have a significant impact on China’s chipmakers, but they are not insurmountable.
- China is investing heavily in its semiconductor industry, and it is likely to continue to do so in the coming years.
- The long-term impact of the export restrictions on China’s semiconductor industry is still uncertain.
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