07 Jan 2021 -

China falling short of ‘Made in China 2025’ goals for ICs

China will fall dramatically short of their 2025 goal to domestically produce 70% of their IC needs, according to this new five-year forecast from semicon market analysts, IC Insights.

Currently, IC production in China is forecast to exhibit a very strong 2020-2025 CAGR of 13.7%, says IC Insights.  However, considering that China-based IC production was only $22.7 billion last year, this growth is starting from a relatively small base. Even with new IC production being established by China memory startups YMTC and CXMT, IC Insights believes that greater than 50% of IC production in China in 2025 will come from foreign companies such as SK Hynix, Samsung, TSMC, and UMC with fabs in China.

In 2020, China’s semiconductor production accounted for 15.9% of its total US$143.4 billion market, which is higher than 2010, 10.2% 10 years ago. It is estimated that by 2025, this share will increase by 3.5% over 2020, reaching 19.4%. (The average annual growth is 0.7%), as shown in the figure 1.

Copyright IC Insights 2021

IC Insights points out that a clear distinction should be made between the IC market in China and indigenous IC production in China. As IC Insights has oftentimes stated, although China has been the largest consuming country for ICs since 2005, it does not necessarily mean that large increases in IC production within China would immediately follow. 

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